Futures Thinking & Scenario
Building
Why
Use It
Futures Thinking
and a Scenario Building is a thinklet for ordering our perceptions about
alternative futures. It makes us aware of potential problems that might occur
if we were to take certain actions. Once we see what’s
emerging, our thinking and actions will dramatically improve.
Note: A
scenario is a narrative ... a story about the future. They are written,
however, from a historical perspective (as if they already happened). Scenarios written as future
history are a more useful tool in planning because they help explain the
developments along the way that may lead to a particular future. Give
names and locations to make them more real.
How
to Use It
Develop a 1-2 paragraph scenario and
ideas for one or all of the following.
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Possible
Future: What
may happen in the future? This is anything within the realm of chance of
occurring, whether good or bad, likely or unlikely, conventional or
unconventional. |
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Scenario: |
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Ideas |
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Probable
Future What
is most likely or probable to happen in the future? This form of future is
usually the result of extrapolating trends or developments into the future in
some way. Note: This is considered
predicting the future. |
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Scenario: |
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Ideas |
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Preferred
Future What
ideally or preferably should happen in the future? This is the future that
will be shaped by your plans, decisions and actions made today. |
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Scenario: |
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Ideas |
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